Every year I write an analysis of the upcoming Texas Ranger season. This year I invited my resident expert to write this year's analysis. As always, just skip this one if you are not a Texas Ranger fan.
It would be easy to be overly
optimistic about the Rangers' chances this year based on the their off-season
roster upgrades and their Spring Training successes. They've out-scored most Cactus League
competitors; and the pitching has been pretty good too. All signs point to a much improved record
after their 102 losses last year.
Possibly, there might even be some meaningful September games as well
this season. Just winning half their
games would be a major 20 game turnaround for a team that finished last in just
about every statistical category in 2021 including being the division cellar
dwellers.
Most baseball reporters were
surprised how much money Texas
spent remaking their roster given how far behind we ended up last year. Usually that kind of spending spree makes
sense only for an already good, playoff- bound team needing to fill just a
couple of holes to spark a winning season and deep playoff run.
The Rangers didn't just fill
holes. They remade the team by upgrading
key “up the middle” positions. The
management signed high priced, long-term contracts at shortstop (Cory Seager)
and second base (Marcus Semien). The
remake decision stems from the belief the team is ready to blossom on a strong
farm system base of maturing young players.
Further, the new hires are proven everyday players, expected to provide
important clubhouse leadership for the younger guys to stimulate a winning
on-field attitude and performance. (The
Rangers have been missing clubhouse leadership since the retirement of Adrian
Beltre and the trade of Elvis Andrus.)
So this team remake will hopefully be the spark for the “lightning in
the bottle” medicine to deliver winning success sooner rather than later.
Of course all of the purchase
of these new players is just gambling with team ownership money. Even high-priced, proven players have
volatile individual athletic performances.
Then, there’s the luck of the draw with injuries, and the mysterious
team chemistry effect. Every year there
are a couple of teams whose gambling pays off, and those teams exceed
expectations. This is the time of year
when all of us can hope for that lightning. Worst case, the new stars and
excitement should put more butts in the seats to help pay for those ridiculous
new salaries and provide more hope for next year.
Here's the projected everyday
lineup - new players marked with (*)
2B (*) Semien
SS (*) Seager
CF Garcia
1B Lowe
C (*) Garver / Heim
[Note: Trevino was a last minute trade
to the Yankees for pitching.]
RF (*) C. Calhoun
LF (*) Miller / Solak
3B Ibanez / Culberson
DH W. Calhoun / Solak
Here's the projected starting
rotation
(*) J. Gray
(*) M. Perez [This is Martin Perez, former Ranger.]
Dunning
Hearn
(*) Howard / Burke
The bullpen coming out of
camp looks good. The bullpen and the
high minors will have a mix of replacement starters and actual relief
specialists for the inevitable revolving door of a major league pitching
staff. This team will sink or swim with
the ability of the starters to go 5+ innings and keep the score close for the
new, improved offense without wearing out the bullpen.
With all the new faces this
year, the pitching, overall, is still the weak link. The team has a lot of young talent (and depth),
but there's just not enough proven guys with a history of ace performances
needed for the long season. Quantity is
important here because pitching is notorious for injury problems on every
team. In my opinion, the remade Rangers
just don't have quite enough pitching yet to make the playoffs. If the Rangers have a good start, it’s
possible there might be a couple of mid-season deals for starting pitching to
stay in contention. Otherwise, the
management will work on the pitching weaknesses next winter and we can all get
optimistic for 2023.
