(This blog is for you 50 loyal Texas Ranger fans who clamor for and read this one entry every year. I outsourced it this year to the man who knows the Rangers. I paid for it in homemade cookies, but I promise this is a far superior product to what I could produce.)
The Rangers' off-season was mostly uneventful this year - no blockbuster free agent signings or trades. There were well-publicized reasons for this. Mainly, the prospect of making the playoffs this year was considered by the management to be low due to stiff competition from the Astros, Angels, Yankees, Indians and Red Sox, and even the Twins and Mariners. On paper, the Rangers figure to finish third or fourth in their division in 2018, primarily due to pitching weaknesses.
Therefore, the Rangers' off-season strategy was to avoid budget busting pitching contracts, at least until mid-season when their contention status is clearer. Instead, the team has brought in several low cost 'retread' pitchers (Fister, Moore, Minor, Colon, Lincecum) in hopes of getting a couple of lucky bargains. The common theme here is pitchers with previous successful track records, but recent injury or age issues Have driven down their market values.
In the batter's box, the Rangers have a nearly 'set club' of everyday players. There are only a couple of roster spots up for grabs. The team should have little trouble scoring runs on most of the pitchers they will face during the season, as well as fielding their positions. There are some offensive targets being emphasized in spring training: Fewer strikeouts and better base running.
Here's what has actually happened so far in spring training. Most of the new starting pitcher candidates have been encouraging with Fister and Moore leading the way. They should lock down roster spots. Minor has been inconsistent as a starter. Because of his contract, he'll either begin in the rotation or the bullpen. Bartolo Colon is the big (no pun intended) wild card. The 44 year old man they call "Big Sexy" is getting guys out, but I think a full line up of major league hitters will quickly demote him to Retirement City. Today, he threw 53 pitches, 44 of which were strikes, went four innings and gave up one unearned run in the first inning. These types of performances in the spring might earn him some type of spot on the team. Late arriving Tim Lincecum is intriguing because of his Cy Young pedigree. I'm looking forward to his actual game action soon. He has reported good health and his attitude is 'anywhere where I can help the team'.
Here's what we are likely to see on the opening day 25 man roster:
Infield: Beltre, Andres, Odor, Gallo, Profar or Alberto (who is healthy again)
Catcher: Chirinos backed by Centeno or Casali (both mostly minor leaguers from Triple AAA in other organizations)
Outfield: Choo (mostly a DH), Mazara, DeShields, with a Rua/Robinson platoon based on the opposition starting pitcher since they are right/left handed batters.
Starting Rotation: Hamels, Perez (who we haven't seen, but supposedly is going to be ready to start the season), Fister, Moore, Minor and/or Colon
Bullpen: Bush, Claudio, Diekman, Kela, Barnette, Lincecum, C. Martin, Minor (if he doesn't make the rotation) or Gardewine or Scott or the long shot: Colon.
The Matt Bush experiment as a starter could change things up, but I doubt it. I expect the rotation slots to go to guys who have actually been successful starting pitchers. Also, don't pay any attention to this 6 man rotation talk. The actual rotation will always vary depending on scheduled days off, individual pitcher rest needs, and even rain-outs.
Again this year the Rangers don't have an ideal situation for Jurikson Profar. He's major league ready, but without an every day position available. So, he can only make the club as an extra infielder, or go down to Triple A. Of course, there's always the injury factor. Another factor in favor of keeping Profar somewhere in the Ranger system is Beltre and Andrus will be free agents after this year. (Based on the dismal signing of high power free agents this past off-season wanting five and six year contracts, it's unlikely either of them (at ages 39 and 30) could command those long term contracts.) Jon Daniels MIGHT be willing to sign a two year deal with Andrus, but probably would be more likely to sign Beltre for one year to help him finish out the 38 homers he needs for 500.)
Adrian Beltre is a lock for the Baseball Hall of Fame, and he would go in as a Texas Ranger. He's approaching very, very rarefied air in the baseball world. If he can hit 38 more home runs to get to 500, and with his already achieved numbers in runs, rbi's, doubles, hits, etc. - only Hank Aaron has equal numbers. I don't think Beltre can stay healthy enough to hit 38 home runs in this season, but Daniels knows that a one additional year contract to achieve the 38 homers would put lots of butt in the seats.
So, what's in store for the regular season? When it comes to natural phenomena, I always think in terms of probabilities. Baseball outcomes behave sort of naturally because of the long season and the vast number of variables affecting every play and every game. Injuries and performance variations are almost totally random.
Despite the number of apparently stronger teams in our division, and those teams going on an all-in star player(s) acquisition campaign, I still give the Rangers a 30% chance to make the playoffs. The Rangers have one of the best everyday lineups in baseball. Their pitching, though, will probably not hold up well enough to compete to the very end of the season. The reason for the 30% number is one or two of the top American League teams (and at least one is in our division) will falter due to bad luck with injuries and unexpectedly poor player performances. There are always a couple of surprising teams the pundits miss. If the Rangers have better than average injury luck and 'lightening in the bottle' performances from their suspect pitchers, and a few other players, then they could make the playoffs.
So these prognosticators who try to wrap their predictions in the fabric of certainty, remember this: It's all only probabilistic guesswork. The randomness of baseball is what gives us hope for the unlikely outcome. I'm going to enjoy the start of the season (March 29th) with an optimistic attitude. Go Rangers!
