Wednesday, April 6, 2022

Texas Rangers - 2022 Season Analysis

 Every year I write an analysis of the upcoming Texas Ranger season.  This year I invited my resident expert to write this year's analysis.  As always, just skip this one if you are not a Texas Ranger fan.

It would be easy to be overly optimistic about the Rangers' chances this year based on the their off-season roster upgrades and their Spring Training successes.  They've out-scored most Cactus League competitors; and the pitching has been pretty good too.  All signs point to a much improved record after their 102 losses last year.  Possibly, there might even be some meaningful September games as well this season.  Just winning half their games would be a major 20 game turnaround for a team that finished last in just about every statistical category in 2021 including being the division cellar dwellers.

 Most baseball reporters were surprised how much money Texas spent remaking their roster given how far behind we ended up last year.  Usually that kind of spending spree makes sense only for an already good, playoff- bound team needing to fill just a couple of holes to spark a winning season and deep playoff run. 

 The Rangers didn't just fill holes.  They remade the team by upgrading key “up the middle” positions.  The management signed high priced, long-term contracts at shortstop (Cory Seager) and second base (Marcus Semien).  The remake decision stems from the belief the team is ready to blossom on a strong farm system base of maturing young players.  Further, the new hires are proven everyday players, expected to provide important clubhouse leadership for the younger guys to stimulate a winning on-field attitude and performance.  (The Rangers have been missing clubhouse leadership since the retirement of Adrian Beltre and the trade of Elvis Andrus.)  So this team remake will hopefully be the spark for the “lightning in the bottle” medicine to deliver winning success sooner rather than later.

 Of course all of the purchase of these new players is just gambling with team ownership money.  Even high-priced, proven players have volatile individual athletic performances.  Then, there’s the luck of the draw with injuries, and the mysterious team chemistry effect.  Every year there are a couple of teams whose gambling pays off, and those teams exceed expectations.  This is the time of year when all of us can hope for that lightning. Worst case, the new stars and excitement should put more butts in the seats to help pay for those ridiculous new salaries and provide more hope for next year.

 Here's the projected everyday lineup - new players marked with (*)

 2B (*) Semien

SS (*) Seager

CF Garcia

1B Lowe

C (*) Garver / Heim [Note:  Trevino was a last minute trade to the Yankees for pitching.]

RF (*) C. Calhoun

LF (*) Miller / Solak

3B Ibanez / Culberson

DH W. Calhoun / Solak

 Here's the projected starting rotation

 (*) J. Gray

(*) M. Perez [This is Martin Perez, former Ranger.]

Dunning

Hearn

(*) Howard / Burke

 The bullpen coming out of camp looks good.  The bullpen and the high minors will have a mix of replacement starters and actual relief specialists for the inevitable revolving door of a major league pitching staff.  This team will sink or swim with the ability of the starters to go 5+ innings and keep the score close for the new, improved offense without wearing out the bullpen.

 With all the new faces this year, the pitching, overall, is still the weak link.  The team has a lot of young talent (and depth), but there's just not enough proven guys with a history of ace performances needed for the long season.  Quantity is important here because pitching is notorious for injury problems on every team.  In my opinion, the remade Rangers just don't have quite enough pitching yet to make the playoffs.  If the Rangers have a good start, it’s possible there might be a couple of mid-season deals for starting pitching to stay in contention.  Otherwise, the management will work on the pitching weaknesses next winter and we can all get optimistic for 2023.


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