What is Exponential and What Does it Have to do With a Kitten Video?

I wrote a fairly mild post about the virus last week.  Brooklyn is a place where the virus is exponentially growing.  If you're not sure what exponential means, think of this phrase:   'That kitten video went viral' - meaning it started with a few people watching, who then sent it to their friends, who sent it to their friends and it just snowballed.)  That's the danger of the coronavirus. 

We keep focusing on the wrong number:  True fact:  Only about 20% of people who get sick will need to be hospitalized.  So if 100 people get the virus, then 20 will need to be hospitalized.  OK - no problem.  However, if we don't know how many people actually have the virus (another true fact), then think about this.  If 10 people in your town/area have been tested and shown to have the virus, the true number of people WITH the virus is much higher.  Harvard Medical School/Mass General Hospital think the number of PEOPLE WHO ACTUALLY HAVE THE VIRUS could be 50 times the number of confirmed cases.  So, instead of 10 people in your town with the virus there could be 500. 

If the virus 'goes viral' over the next few months (like a kitten video), the number of people infected skyrockets by doubling or tripling every day because of social contact, and the true fact that the virus lives for several hours on hard surfaces.  Thus, we have the 'curve' everyone keeps talking about.  SOCIAL DISTANCING HELPS BREAK THE UPWARD CURVE.

If you are still having trouble getting this, think about the penny exercise.  Start with one penny.  Double the number of pennies you save each day. 
Day 1 = 1;
Day 2 = 2;
Day 3 = 4;
Day 4 = 8,
Day 5 = 16
Day 6 = 32
Day 7 = 64
Day 8 = 128
Day 9 = 256
Day 10 = 512 pennies you need to save

Now, let's do it with the virus.  Let's be conservative & say there are 3 times as many cases of people with the virus  in your town:
Day 1 = 10 known cases in your town multiplied x 3 = 30 people who actually have the virus.  (Remember: A big percentage of those 30 will have no symptoms.)  If the number of people with the virus doubles every day this is what happens:

Day 2 = 60 people who actually have the virus
Day 3 = 120
Day 4 = 240
Day 5 = 480
Day 6 =  960
Day 7 = 1920
Day 8 = 3840
Day 9 = 7680
Day 10 = 15,360

If  20% of the Day 10 people with the virus need to go to the hospital, we have 3,072 people who are going to need to be hospitalized in a town that started with 10 known cases less than 2 weeks ago. 
 
Here's another problem:  Hospitals are already 65-95% full.  This leaves even fewer beds for coronavirus patients. What about people who don't have the virus who need a hospital bed? Know somebody who needs an operation?  How about that terrible car crash or accident that happened in every city or town last night?  Know someone with cancer who needs chemo?  Know someone with acute diabetes?  All the normal reasons someone needs a hospital bed or intensive care or a ventilator is going to have their treatment compromised or unavailable.  Some of these people are going to die who under normal circumstances would recover.

Now you know why our family has been practicing social distancing since March 5th.  We don't go anywhere except to walk back and forth between our two apartments.  We give a wide berth to people we pass on the sidewalk.  We Lysol door knobs, switches, toilet handles, etc. in both the apartments right before we 'switch' each day.  Our goal is to help break the curve by coming into contact with as few people as possible.

We wash our hands 20 seconds at a time with soap and water several times a day since we do have food and other supplies delivered to us.  My grocery store that delivers is just around the corner.  When I put away that can of soup (hard surface),  I think,  "Who touched it?"  When Drake uses the laundry in our building, he uses gloves.  We Lysol our door knobs.  I use a stylus to punch the elevator buttons.  I use my shoulder to open the outer doors of our apartment building.  I try to protect our essential workers (like the guy who delivers our groceries) by staying 6 feet away and carrying in our own stuff. 

Now, you're probably thinking, oh those numbers must be false.  Again, think about this:  If you have no symptoms, but you are infected, and you are still out and about, every person you handed something to, and everything you touched has exposed a lot of people to the virus.  Someone an hour later bought the can of soup you picked up, decided against buying, and put back on the grocery shelf.

Social distancing only works if it starts EARLY.

Hand washing is a way of showing concern for yourself and others.

Limit the number of places you go and people you socialize with.

Rise to the occasion.